We’ve arrived at the run home; the final stretch; the big song at the end of the concert.
On Saturday evening Anthony Albanese will become the first Prime Minister since John Howard to be re-elected at consecutive elections, or Peter Dutton will produce a Scott Morrison-like 2019 miracle and emerge as our nation’s new leader.
This has not been the most inspiring of election campaigns. At times it’s been as exciting as watching grass grow in the middle of winter.
It has largely been about finger pointing, questionable claims about what the other bloke will or won’t do, and taking the safe option.
To that extent we’ve seen both leaders spend less time mingling with the public at shopping centres and the like, as both attempt to avoid any sort of unexpected misstep that will derail the campaign.
It is tradition for newspapers to endorse a candidate on the eve of the election, and we will get to that in a moment.
Let’s try to unpack a few things first.
Before Cyclone Alfred entered our vocabulary back in March, Peter Dutton was charging towards the election with all the momentum in his favour.
But with the weather event delaying what was widely tipped to be an April election, by the time the official campaign got underway, the Liberal leader appeared to have lost some of his steam.
I have no doubt the Dutton camp would be surprised that some of their sugar hit tactics to tackle cost-of-living haven’t resonated better with the Australian public.
Things like a one-off tax cut of $1200 and a reduction in the fuel excise to reduce the pain at the pump are moves you would traditionally expect to work during a campaign.
But Dutton was never able to cut through on this, and the public seemed to buy Anthony Albanese’s longer-term relief plan than they did lean into the quick fix.
This was curious in some ways, given Labor’s promise of lower power bills at the last election never came to fruition, surely creating doubt in people’s minds.
The Coalition rightly focused on this broken promise during its campaign, but it again didn’t hit. For whatever reason, the public wasn’t lining up with baseball bats over that particular power price furphy.
For me one of the tackiest elements of the election campaign was Albanese’s penchant for pulling out his Medicare card and delivering the line that it was the only card you needed when visiting the doctor.
I don’t believe the Coalition countered this enough.
In the Sky News People’s Forum early in the campaign, an audience member confirmed she had to use her credit card, not just her Medicare card, at her last doctor’s visit.
And that is the lived experience for many of us here in Penrith when we want to visit the doctor, if we can get an appointment.
Dutton needed to jump on this better – he literally should have countered Albanese’s move by pulling out his Medicare card and his credit card at every opportunity.
Dutton spent much of the campaign blaming Anthony Albanese for the cost-of-living crisis and for many of Australia’s other troubles.
But the public is smarter than that, and knows that blaming a government alone for issues like skyrocketing power and food prices is not the right path.
There’s also an argument mounting that while cost-of-living is hurting people, the crisis may not be as dire as portrayed in some quarters, hence why longer-term relief is perhaps favoured.
Dutton’s nuclear power plan also caused significant harm during the campaign.
When it was announced well before the election campaign, Dutton would have been hoping for much wider support, but he couldn’t counter the concerns of the public over both safety and cost.
In the end, it was a free hit to Labor. Albanese did well to take advantage of both of these factors, and successfully planted the seed that the only way the Coalition could pay for this plan was to cut funding elsewhere.
The policy never hit with the electorate and will surely be abandoned if Dutton loses.
Let’s focus on more hyper local issues just for a moment, and there is no doubt that Labor again failed to mount a decent campaign in Lindsay.
None of that is likely the fault of candidate Hollie McLean, but head office largely kept the cheque book in the drawer, harming her ability to make ground and get traction.
Labor’s failure to match the Coalition’s commitment to finish Mulgoa Road construction was a particular sour point.
There is no question that the Coalition has committed more directly to Lindsay during this campaign than any other party, while Labor largely ignored it.
That is simply a fact, though Labor preferred to push its more broader messaging to the community.
From a local perspective, the Weekender does believe that Melissa McIntosh deserves to continue as the MP for Lindsay.
She has run an effective campaign and her experience is now coming to the fore.
But…. and yes, there is a but.
After a little over five weeks of campaigning, Peter Dutton has done little to prove he should be the next Prime Minister of Australia.
He has failed to cut through and failed to provide an alternate plan that provides long-term, sensible government.
Therefore, the Weekender believes that Labor and Anthony Albanese deserves a second term in government.
The Coalition needs more time to get its house in order after just one term in opposition.
Anthony Albanese must be a better Prime Minister in his second term than he was in his first. He needs to better understand the problems Australians are facing and he particularly needs to find solutions for the small business pressures that are sending many people to the wall.
However, there are green shoots starting to form and signs the worst of the economic challenges are behind his government.
At no stage during the campaign did Dutton produce the killer moment that suggested things would be better under his leadership.
Therefore, change cannot be supported.
Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.