There is no possible way Jo Haylen can survive as the New South Wales Transport Minister.
And if she does, the bruises on Premier Chris Minns may not fade by the time voters next go to the polls.
At a time when Australians, and particularly those in Sydney, are looking for real leadership, Minns is showing little of it.
It is not enough for Minns to simply review and change the guidelines around the use of taxpayer-funded ministerial drivers.
Vague as they may be, you would expect one of the most powerful ministers in the State to be well aware of what passes the pub test and what does not in relation to the use of ministerial drivers and cars.
Which is part of the deeper issue here.
If Haylen can’t see that using her driver to take her to a boozy lunch in the Hunter Valley is well outside of public expectations, how could we possibly think she’s the most competent person to be overseeing one of the most crucial portfolios on the State?
After all, she hardly set the world on fire in the recent stoush with rail unions.
Since The Sunday Telegraph’s original story about Haylen’s January lunch, further question marks have been raised over her use of ministerial drivers, including taking her kids to Saturday sport from her family’s Caves Beach holiday house.
During a heated interview with 2GB’s Ben Fordham on Tuesday morning, Minns explained that Haylen was on her way to work on those occasions and the kids were dropped off along the way.
The argument being that in the life of a minister with a portfolio like transport, the personal and the professional often collide in relation to hours and commitments.
That much is true.
But there would still have to be a question mark over whether you should be using your ministerial vehicle to ferry yourself from your holiday house back to Sydney for work on a weekend.
Spending time at your holiday joint seems like a personal decision, not one forced upon you by work, and getting yourself there and back would make the most sense.
The reality is that a pattern is emerging of Jo Haylen, quite frankly, taking the piss.
In the very least, a sense of entitlement surrounds her.
The questionable use of the ministerial car and driver has been repeated, not a singular event as suggested on Sunday.
Only 18 months ago Haylen somehow survived the scandal surrounding the appointment of Josh Murray as NSW Secretary of Transport despite serious questions over his suitability for the job.
There was then drama over the alleged use of a public service employee for political activities in her office.
Then during the recent train drama with the unions, she barely appeared to land a blow when it mattered.
Perhaps Haylen should have taken public transport to some of these little jaunts and parental responsibilities – she could have still worked while travelling and got a better understanding of the network she oversees.
At a more crucial time of the election cycle, you have to wonder if the Premier would have acted more swiftly here.
If we’re in a State Election year, do you really think Haylen still has her Transport Minister business card?
Minns is taking an extraordinary risk and political gamble by backing Haylen.
On Tuesday, he opted to front up to 2GB in person to answer the tough questions from Fordham, perhaps part of a widely thought theory that you get a slightly softer run if you rock up in person rather than do the interview over the phone.
That didn’t really happen on this occasion and Minns struggled to explain his position under intense questioning.
It wasn’t a train wreck interview, but it did expose a few cracks in the toughness of his leadership and moreso raised questions over his own judgement.
If Haylen eventually goes, and she will if more evidence of additional dodgy trips emerges, then Minns will be left to look like a fool, knowing that he should have acted earlier.
The electorate will rightly point out that they could see before Minns himself that his Minister should be gone.
That doesn’t sell your leadership or judgement credentials very well.
Many have pointed out that while from different factions of the party, Haylen was critical in Minns’ rise to Premier.
But paying back your dues surely only stretches so far.
Haylen meanwhile will continue pushing the line that everything she did was technically within the rules, albeit failing the pub test in relation to the Australia Day weekend lunch.
But this is the thing: a minister in such a high position, and with an important role in the sitting government, should be able to pass the pub test with flying colours.
Anyone who has had any level of corporate job in Australia where you have a company credit card, a company car or access to perks related to that company knows where the line is.
It is when that line is blurred (though in some of Haylen’s cases, it’s hard to argue even that is the case) that one’s judgement is truly tested.
Yes, you can make mistakes. The wrong call here and there.
But at the end of the day, Jo Haylen should know better.
Her response to the scandal so far, and the Premier’s lack of serious action, is becoming a growing stain on the government.
If Haylen still has the job next week, it will be extraordinary.

Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.