Cyclone Alfred, which quickly became ex-Cyclone Alfred just as breakfast TV reporters were breathlessly chasing new content last Saturday morning, may not have had the devastating impact initially predicted, but it certainly changed the way 2025 looks in Australia.
While northern New South Wales and parts of Queensland continue in their clean-up efforts after the storm caused plenty of trouble, albeit not widespread carnage, the major fall-out has come at a political level.
The Prime Minister will likely continue to deny it but had Alfred not made its threats towards Australia last week, we’d right now be in the first week of an election campaign.
Every indication was that Anthony Albanese planned to visit the Governor General last Sunday and plunge Australia into a campaign that would have seen us heading to the polls on April 12.
It made sense.
Albanese was ready.
Peter Dutton was ready.
Alfred had other ideas.
April 12 would have given the government a clear run between now and election day, with no public holidays and no potential momentum roadblocks.
Now, the campaign will look completely different than originally planned.
In an effort to avoid the Easter and ANZAC holidays, the election will now be held in May – either May 3, 10 or 17.
Regardless of what day it is, the campaign will now have the Easter holidays right in the middle of it.
That is a challenge for those who plan election campaigns and strategies to the finest of details.
It means that in a crucial stage of the campaign, people’s attention will be significantly diverted.
And there will be a feeling that the momentum needs to speed up again after the holiday period, which is why I think May 3 is unlikely to be the day – it’s just not enough time after the ANZAC Day weekend to regain the attention of voters.
May 10 or May 17, the latter of which is the latest date an election can be held, would make far more sense. I wouldn’t mind betting on May 10.
So who benefits most from this change of plan?
I dare say, it’s Anthony Albanese.
Even though he could have always gone in May, there’s no question that from a campaign perspective, April 12 was the sensible landing date for an election.
But with that now out of the question, Albanese is left holding all of the aces.
While Alfred thankfully did not deliver the destruction originally projected, Albanese took full advantage of the situation by placing himself front and centre at media briefings in the lead-up to the cyclone making landfall, something perhaps traditionally left in the hands of State Premiers.
It allowed Albanese to establish a feeling of reassurance in his leadership, and perhaps remind people that with a crisis looming, he was right here ready to face it, not sipping cocktails in Hawaii.
It also deflated Peter Dutton somewhat.
Dutton had been building momentum strongly, grabbing almost as much of the news cycle as Albanese and I dare say was going from the once unelectable Opposition Leader to a potential Prime Minister.
But the air feels like it has shifted in this past week. A Newspoll that didn’t go in his favour, and revelations about that famous explosive-laden caravan that have left Dutton somewhat red-faced, and with questions to answer.
Now the caravan story would have come out anyway, and as it turns out would have been revealed in the first week of an election campaign. Dutton may have never recovered from such an early speed hump, so some may argue the timing of the election delay has worked in his favour, too.
But this past week has really allowed Albanese to gain back some control.
A single-issue week in politics can make or break you, and Cyclone Alfred certainly gave Albanese the opportunity to put himself at the centre of the story.
He did reasonably well, not going over the top but certainly not fading into the background either. Australians knew he was there, and that was the point.
Dutton simply couldn’t find air time, and anything he said or did was pointless anyway. Times like this are for leaders to shine and for Opposition Leaders to nod along.
Both leaders will now look for a reset of sorts.
Albanese would prefer a quieter period ahead, allowing him time to sell an upcoming March Budget and likely cost-of-living measures to the public before the election itself is called.
Dutton wouldn’t mind a Government scandal, in fact he’s probably desperate for one right about now.
Cyclone Alfred hasn’t saved the election for Anthony Albanese.
But I have no doubt that it’s put him in a better position than he was had he stuck with his original plan of an April 12 poll.
Funny how things work out.
The campaign now will be all about how the parties respond and handle the Budget later this month, what the Reserve Bank does on April 1, and how both leaders handle the Easter and ANZAC periods.
With Easter Monday and ANZAC Day falling in the same week, there is now almost a dead week set to fall in the middle of the campaign; and it’s the kind of week where an election could be won and lost.
As we near the starting line, you feel the past week has given Anthony Albanese a head start. But will he have the stamina to still be in front at the finish?
Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.