Peter Dutton as Prime Minister seemed an unthinkable prospect when he took over as Opposition Leader in May 2022, just days after Australians took a baseball bat to Scott Morrison’s government.
But as we edge closer to an election being called, and we remind ourselves just how quickly three years goes, Dutton has got the Coalition into a competitive position.
That’s not saying he will win the battle with Anthony Albanese in a few months’ time, but he is well and truly in the fight, and that should have Labor purists nervous and Coalition supporters feeling an unlikely confidence.
This election will be so tight that a single moment could define it.
An interest rate drop, for example, could swing things in Albanese’s favour.
One ponders if Albanese will wait as long as possible before sending us to the polls in the hope that the Reserve Bank may move rates at its Board meetings in February, late March or mid-May.
Albanese knows that a rate increase is unlikely, so gambling on a possible rate decrease isn’t such a bad bet.
And as much as we know that the government of the day doesn’t control interest rates, there’s no question that a slight ease in household budgets days or weeks out from an election could make a difference to those swinging voters.
It is cost-of-living, no doubt, that has Dutton in the frame, not necessarily through his own actions but through Labor’s inability to seriously tackle the issue in a way that has made people’s lives better than they were three years ago.
Dutton has already shown some Trump-like behaviour in the lead-up to the election campaign getting underway and he’ll hope that a trait of Americans who voted for the Donald, being that they felt their lives had not improved under a new government, will ring true in Australia.
Power prices play a significant part in that, particularly given Labor promised at the last election that electricity would be cheaper under an Albanese government.
Albanese would surely be regretting the commitment made at the 2022 election that power bills would be $275 cheaper each year under Labor.
The ABC labels this a ‘stalled promise’, but it is very close to moving into the ‘broken’ category, surely.
We’re all doing it tough when it comes to electricity prices, and bills are only rising.
That not only leaves a sour taste in the mouth of voters, but would leave people questioning Labor’s overall renewables plan.
And it’s why there was some method to the madness in Dutton’s plan to explore nuclear energy as a power option in the years and decades to come.
Dutton was criticised by plenty over the plan, and Labor will no doubt seize on what it will label a fantasy plan and an unworkable one from a cost and health perspective.
But the Coalition will have some bullets of their own to fire.
If Labor’s 2022 promise of lowering power prices was based on either poor modelling, bad politics or just downright lies, how much faith can one put in what they’re saying about nuclear? How much faith can we have that Albanese, Chris Bowen and co are actually on the right path?
So in short, with his somewhat wild nuclear plan, Dutton has at least got people talking. We know there is an alternative, we know there is an opposite path and if people look at their electricity bills on a lazy Saturday morning before heading off to get a democracy sausage, you never know what might happen.
Also working against Albanese will be a feeling in world politics, with signs it’s being repeated here, of a shift away from wokeism, or at least a course correction.
Trump is lapping up that sentiment in the United States and there’s examples elsewhere in the world of conservative governments being in vogue again.
A Coalition government is back in power in Queensland, a key federal battleground.
And as we saw with a resurgence of support for Australia Day over the last week or two, there is a feeling that Australians are craving traditional values at present.
So what does all this mean, and why should Anthony Albanese still be considered the favourite to win the election?
Well, I’m not convinced the wider electorate has their baseball bats out just yet.
And whether cost-of-living will be enough of an issue to get them dusted off is yet to be seen, especially if inflation does continue to fall and rates do drop.
There’s no “I don’t hold a hose” moment just yet.
The stunning failure of The Voice referendum, Albo’s big property purchase and the like have all been thorns in his side, but hardly enough to have people throw him out of office en masse.
We’re also going to see through the election campaign just how energised Albanese is after three difficult years.
Labor would have predicted this would have been an easy enough election victory, that it would take longer for the Coalition to get its house in order after the failure of 2022.
Australian politics has been so shaken by leadership changes and upheaval in the last decade or two that we haven’t been used to seeing a full term Prime Minister head back on the hustings.
Dutton, meanwhile, knows his base. And he knows that swinging voters are a big chance of leaning his way if he says the right things, particularly when it comes to protecting Australian values and traditions.
This may just be an election that is decided in the six weeks of the campaign, where a single moment, slip-up or policy could change the game and decide the winner.
Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.