How much do Cronulla want it?
That is the lead question heading into Saturday night’s Preliminary Final between the Panthers and Sharks at Accor Stadium, but there’s plenty of follow-up queries too.
Is breaking the Finals hoodoo and getting over the Cowboys last week enough for Craig Fitzgibbon’s side? Is the sheer relief of that victory enough?
Can they back it up two weeks in a row? Will the fact nobody expects them to win work in their favour?
Is the fact they haven’t scored against Penrith in their last two outings a factor?
Meanwhile, There’s little questions surrounding Penrith. They know Preliminary Finals. There would only be standard nerves heading into this one, nothing out of the ordinary. The preparation, you would imagine, will be first class.
And there’s no doubt that the week off works to Penrith’s advantage. The likes of Nathan Cleary and Dylan Edwards, both carrying injuries, would have soaked up the break.
But more than the physical advantage, the week off gives the coaching staff the opportunity to plan the fortnight before the game in meticulous detail. In the first week, there’s no media commitments to worry about and all the focus is off you. In the second week, it’s all about going through the motions – nobody is talking about your game from last week or what it all means.
But we go back to that question: How much does Cronulla want it?
They’ll say they want it, of course. But there will always be clues along the way to suggest they might not have.
Take Craig Fitzgibbon’s press conference after the win over the Cowboys for instance.
“We’ve got a decent challenge on our hands,” he said.
“We’re so grateful just to still be here.
“It’s going to be a stiff challenge… we’re so excited to be here.”
Now the Sharks coach was talking after an important win and the most crucial words he uses this week will be to his players.
But does the above sound like fighting words? Not to me.
Indeed, it sounds like a coach who probably knows Penrith has his side’s measure – but they’ll give it one mighty crack anyway.
Cronulla’s win over North Queensland last weekend didn’t set the world on fire. The Cowboys missed 50 tackles and it was only the strong performance of Braydon Trindall that kept the pressure off Nicho Hynes, who was having cups of tea with Harold Holt for portions of the game.
But here’s the main thing I learned out of last week’s semi final: Cronulla can’t go with Penrith for 80 minutes.
Does that guarantee the Panthers a win? Of course not. The Sharks could hit gold and go up 18-0 thanks to strong momentum and then defend their way to a victory. Indeed, I expect them to start strong. They would have talked about it all week after the way Penrith started against the Roosters.
But Penrith’s strength is toying with you; letting you think you’re on top and then suddenly putting the foot down to go past you. They will control the tempo of the game and when momentum is lost, they will strangle you until they get it back.
Anything can happen in 80 minutes of football. A send off, a sin bin, a big injury.
And Cronulla didn’t make it to the Preliminary Final by accident. They’ve had a decent season.
But you can’t ignore the reality that Penrith are just better from 1-17.
The Sharks will go with the Panthers for a little while, but in the end, the cream will rise to the top.
Tip: Panthers by 16.
Penrith and Cronulla play at Accor Stadium on Saturday, September 28 at 7.50pm. The game is live on Nine and Fox League.
Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.