Regular season games don’t get much bigger than this.
First versus second, a month out from the Finals, the Minor Premiership in play.
It’s amazing that we ended up here.
Prior to 2020, the Panthers and Storm didn’t have the biggest of rivalries – the two sides rarely crossed paths during successful eras, and the Panthers became easy whipping boys for Craig Bellamy’s side for quite a while there.
Along came the 2020 Grand Final, where the Storm proved how much experience matters in big games, and a new rugby league rivalry was created.
Since then, we’ve had that epic Preliminary Final in 2021 where Penrith exorcised their demons to win 10-6 and make the Grand Final, eventually going on to win the Premiership.
Another Finals battle arrived in 2023, this time Penrith wiping the floor with Melbourne 38-4.
And earlier this year, Melbourne kept Penrith scoreless with a gritty 8-nil win to open the regular season at AAMI Park.
In the five months that have followed, both sides have gone on their own paths and they land here in Round 24 at BlueBet Stadium with very little separating them.
The Storm have the advantage, sitting in first spot on the ladder with 38 competition points. Penrith follow with 36. Just five points separates the sides in for-and-against, with Penrith +164 and the Storm +169.
And right on cue, both delivered shaky performances last weekend to throw that extra little bit of doubt into how this one is going to unfold.
Melbourne scored five tries to three but their 28-16 win over South Sydney was far from impressive last Thursday night, finding it difficult to make the most of an 18-point half-time lead. Putting the foot down and closing out games has been an issue at times this year.
Meantime, it took another miracle for the Panthers to win last weekend – scoring three late tries to beat Parramatta 36-34, the third time in a month they’ve needed to pull something out of the fire late to get the victory.
That will either steel Penrith for a game like this against the ladder leaders, or is simply getting them closer to a defeat sparked by lapses in concentration and defensive concerns.
Wins over the Dolphins, Knights and now Eels have been thrilling to watch – but they don’t necessarily scream Finals football at you.
That said, there was a little bit of ‘best of both worlds’ out of that performance against the Eels. The side still got the win, keeping their Minor Premiership hopes alive and again proving this is a side that is never dead and buried, but they also likely learned some crucial lessons.
Making victory tougher this weekend is issues for Penrith in the back-row. Liam Martin will miss this game through suspension, while Scott Sorensen is out with a hamstring injury. With Luke Garner still sidelined, the Panthers will go with Mav Geyer and Liam Henry in the second-row.
The loser of this game won’t necessarily sound alarm bells about what’s to come in September, but there’s no question that a victory will provide enormous confidence to the winner. And it will also likely to deliver the Minor Premiership, though that could come down to a mad scramble around for-and-against in the last three rounds of the competition.
I’m confident Penrith won’t leak anywhere near as many points as they did last weekend, and in what is likely to be their final hit-out against a top eight team before the opening weekend of the Finals, I expect a totally committed effort. A close game, but at home, Penrith just have the edge.
Tip: Panthers by 6.
Penrith and Melbourne play at BlueBet Stadium on Thursday, August 15 at 7.50pm. The game is live on Fox League and Channel Nine.
Troy Dodds
Troy Dodds is the Weekender's Managing Editor and Breaking News Reporter. He has more than 20 years experience as a journalist, working with some of Australia's leading media organisations. In 2023, he was named Editor of the Year at the Mumbrella Publish Awards.