If one was to judge their prediction for this Saturday’s match between Penrith and North Queensland purely on what the competition ladder says, it would be a difficult decision to make.
After all, both sides have only won one match this season and both languish in the bottom half of the competition ladder, with the Panthers’ position slightly superior thanks to a better points differential.
Despite that, the experts will be very quick to tip the Cowboys, the betting agencies will have Penrith as outsiders, and even Penrith fans will be fearful of the result the trip to 1300 Smiles Stadium will bring.
The reason the Cowboys will be so heavily favoured comes back to where Penrith currently is at as a football team.
The Panthers are like a boxer who never gets knocked out, lasts the full 12 rounds, but gets beaten on points because he didn’t have the killer punch.
They’re like the odds-on favourite in a horse race who leads with 100 metres to go but somehow gets beaten by a 100-1 shot down the outside.
Penrith is a team playing without a winning spirit or culture, and without the ability to turn their opportunities into points.
More worrying, they are a team playing without self-belief.
WALSH DROPPED
Ivan Cleary made one of the biggest selection decisions of his time at Penrith on Tuesday when he dropped Luke Walsh to reserve grade and replaced him at halfback with Blake Austin.
Penrith will now field one of the most inexperienced halves combination in the NRL with Austin in the number seven jumper and Tom Humble (boy, doesn’t he have some speed!) retaining his position at five-eighth for this weekend’s match.
Whilst dropping Walsh after just four matches is a massive call, Cleary was really left with no other option after the demons that have plagued the 25-year-old for much of his time at Penrith refused to go away.
Walsh shows signs of what he could be every week, but unfortunately the odd flash of brilliance is too often over-shadowed by poor last tackle options, a lack of direction when it is needed most and his inability to create try-scoring opportunities after the forwards lay the foundation.
It wouldn’t have been an easy decision for Cleary. To drop your playmaker is a big call; in fact, it’s a call that could make or break your season and Cleary would not have made the decision on a whim. It’s a monster gamble that Cleary hopes will pay off. For that to happen, Austin must take his opportunity with both hands.
WHARE MUST FIRE
With Matt Bowen one of the most dangerous backs in the NRL and Johnathan Thurston having a brilliant ability to create short holes for excellent attacking plays, there will be a lot of pressure on fullback Dean Whare this weekend. Whare has shown moments of why the Panthers brought him across from Manly this season, but is yet to stamp his authority on the number one jersey. He really needs to step up this Saturday against a Cowboys side that will almost certainly put him under pressure thanks to quick backline moves.
Whare must show his speed and skill if Penrith are to match the Cowboys for flair.
THE FINAL WORD
Despite their impressive roster, the Cowboys are hardly world beaters, and went down to a Warriors side on Monday that previously hadn’t come close to winning a chook raffle at the local RSL. But the problem, as mentioned before, is self-belief. If Penrith believe the odds, if they believe the tipsters and the experts, they will get beaten. If they dig deep enough and find that self-belief, they can beat anyone on their day.
